updated Tuesday, October 13, 2026
Where is the worldheading right now?
Combines 19 benchmark metrics with real-time news from 12 feeds. Scores decay over time so temporary headlines fade out while persistent trends define the trajectory.
Under Pressure
The world remains resilient but under heavy strain: measurable advancements occur, but are frequently absorbed or outpaced by recurrent crises. The needle tilts toward dystopia.
→rapid acceleration (deteriorating)·34 positive and 123 negative events over the last 90 days
Trajectory Over Time
Historical index (solid line) compared to structural baseline (dashed line).
historical index series
The Trajectory, Day by Day
Category Breakdown
Current balance across climate, peace, democracy, health, technology, economy, and society.
seven dimensions
Category Breakdown
Each score combines baseline indicators with recent news from the last 90 days.
- Technologyev. +42+60.329 events
- Healthev. -44+5.015 events
- Economyev. -48-11.311 events
- Climateev. -65-56.446 events
- Societyev. -53-64.69 events
- Rightsev. -52-72.523 events
- Peaceev. -63-79.256 events
Key Drivers
Events with the highest weighted impact over the last 90 days.
positive momentum
Positive Drivers
- Technology·Sep 25, 2026+0.80
Generative AI drug design cuts preclinical development timelines by 30%
Three computer-designed novel molecular structures enter human clinical trials in under 18 months.
weight 1.6 - Technology·Oct 07, 2026+0.70
The Incredible Adventures of the Hera mission – The space detectives arrive
Video: 00:04:19 Meet Hera, our very own asteroid detective. Together with two CubeSats – Milani the rock decoder and Juventas the radar visionary – Hera is off on an adventure to explore Didymos, a double asteroid system that is typical of the thousands that pose an impact risk to planet Earth. After their two year cosmic roadtrip, Hera and its little CubeSat companions have finally arrived at Didymos and Dimorphos – the very first Solar System object to have had its orbit shifted by human action. Suitable for kids and adults alike, this episode of ‘The Incredible Adventures of the Hera…
weight 1.3 - Health·Oct 13, 2026+0.60
Natural RNA modifications in archaea mirror those used in medicine
RNA therapeutics open up new possibilities for the targeted and precise treatment of diseases. To ensure that RNA molecules remain stable in the body and can reliably exert their effects, they undergo specific chemical modifications. However, such modifications to the RNA backbone also occur naturally, according to research by Schraga Schwartz, a professor at the Weizmann Institute of Science (Rehovot, Israel), and Dr. Dina Grohmann, a professor at the University of Regensburg. Their research findings have now been published in the journal Cell under the title "Phosphate backbone…
weight 1.3 - Peace·Oct 12, 2026+0.80
What could Trump's energy ceasefire mean for Ukraine?
The BBC's Dan Johnson reports from Kyiv, where Ukrainians face another winter with electricity outages.
weight 0.9 - Technology·Oct 13, 2026+0.70
New solar model maps sun more accurately by checking far-side activity
A Southwest Research Institute (SwRI)-led team has developed an improved model for predicting solar events that incorporates activity on the far side of the sun. The team studied near-simultaneous maps of the whole solar surface from 2010 to 2014, combining Earth observations with data from space-based assets showing the opposite side. The resulting framework constructs surface flux transport (SFT) models that are more complete and accurate than any previous model.
weight 1.0
negative pressure
Negative Drivers
- Peace·Oct 13, 2026-0.77
Allies did not warn Kyiv of Russian ballistic missile strikes, says Zelenskyy
Ukrainian president’s comments on ‘particularly vile’ strikes come after US threatened to halt intelligence sharing Ukraine received no early warning from its partners about a Russian ballistic missile strike on Kyiv in which five missiles hit civilian infrastructure, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday. The Ukrainian president described the attack on Monday as “particularly vile”. He emphasised that receiving intelligence from Ukraine’s western allies “helps saves lives, and this is one of the most critical issues”. Continue reading...
weight 2.2 - Peace·Oct 13, 2026-0.73
Saudi Arabia strikes oil depots in Yemen and says missiles launched toward location of Saudi Aramco HQ
Civilians warned to leave target area near Sana’a before attacks as conflict between Riyadh and Houthi forces escalates Saudi Arabia has launched a series of strikes on a strategic oil depot on the outskirts of Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, while later on Tuesday it said it had intercepted missiles launched toward Dharan, location of the headquarters of the national energy behemoth Saudi Aramco. The attacks on both sides were a fresh escalation of the conflict between Riyadh and the Iran-backed Houthi forces. Before its offensive on Tuesday, a Saudi spokesperson warned civilians to leave the…
weight 2.2 - Peace·Oct 12, 2026-0.74
CCTV shows moment of strike at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh
CTV footage released by Saudi authorities shows the moment a missile strike hit Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on October 10. The attack killed at least 13 people and injured hundreds, forcing the suspension of airport operations.
weight 2.2 - Peace·Oct 12, 2026-0.72
Saudi Arabia further suspends flights after latest deadly Houthi attack on airport
Energy minister says ‘fear has no place in the Saudi lexicon’ as paramilitary group again breaches stretched defences Why are the Houthis attacking Saudi airports and how are the missiles getting through? Saudi Arabia has been forced to suspend all flights to and from its main international airport in Riyadh until next Saturday after a further round of Houthi missile attacks caused more damage and left one person dead. Some airlines, including Gulf Air, had already said they were cancelling flights until next Saturday. More missiles were fired at Saudi Arabian cities by the Houthis on Monday,…
weight 2.2 - Peace·Oct 13, 2026-0.71
Russia pounds Kharkiv and Lviv region with missiles and drones, killing three civilians
At least three people were killed and 37 injured in Kharkiv as Russia launched repeated aerial attacks on the north-eastern Ukrainian city on Monday and overnight. Strikes also caused damage near Lviv, in western Ukraine.
weight 2.2
Structural Indicators
19 benchmark metrics providing the steady baseline for the index.
structural baseline · 19 metrics
Global Indicators
Long-term metrics from global agencies (UN, WHO, World Bank, SIPRI). These don't fluctuate with breaking headlines, anchoring the index to multi-year reality.
- Climate2024
Living Planet Index
-73% since 1970▼ -1.4% annual averageCatastrophic average decline across monitored wild vertebrate populations.
WWF Living Planet Report
- Climate2026
Atmospheric CO₂
426ppm▲ +2.6 ppm/year50% above pre-industrial baseline: the global accumulation curve has not yet bent.
NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory
- Climate2026
Renewables in Electricity Mix
35%▲ +2.4 pts/yearSolar photovoltaic is the fastest-growing power source in human history.
Ember / IEA
- Climate2025
Global Temperature Anomaly
+1.45°C▲ +0.12 °C over decadeThe 1.5 °C threshold was exceeded on an annual basis for the first time in 2024.
WMO / Copernicus
- Rights2026
Population in Autocracies
72%▲ autocratization waveEighth consecutive year of democratic regression across hybrid and closed regimes.
V-Dem Democracy Report
- Rights2026
Imprisoned Journalists
550worldwide▲ +6% year-on-yearHistorical high: over half of all detentions concentrated in just five countries.
RSF / CPJ
- Economy2026
Global Extreme Poverty Rate
8.4%▼ -0.3 pts/yearPoverty continues to fall, though the 2030 target (3%) remains out of reach.
World Bank
- Economy2026
Global Real GDP Growth
3.1%▼ stableSustaining resilience despite trade fragmentation, supply shifts, and tariff barriers.
IMF World Economic Outlook
- Economy2026
Wealth Held by Top 1%
45%▲ +0.8 ptsWealth concentration is outpacing real median income growth across key economies.
World Inequality Lab
- Health2025
Under-5 Child Mortality
3.6%▼ -2.1% annual decreaseDown nearly two-thirds compared to 1990: one of humanity's most resilient achievements.
UN IGME
- Health2026
Undernourished Population
690million▼ -1.2% year-on-yearGradually easing, but 8.4% of the human population remains without sufficient nutrition.
FAO SOFI
- Health2025
Global Life Expectancy
73.8years▲ +0.4 yearsNew historical peak, successfully rebounding beyond 2019 pre-pandemic benchmarks.
UN World Population Prospects
- Health2025
Childhood Vaccine Coverage
85%▲ +0.5 pts14 million zero-dose children worldwide still do not receive initial vaccinations.
WHO / UNICEF
- Peace2025
Active Armed Conflicts
56worldwide▲ +4 in one yearHighest conflict count recorded since 1946; over 90% of casualties are civilian.
Uppsala Conflict Data Program
- Peace2026
Operational Nuclear Warheads
9,600warheads▲ arsenal modernizationFollowing the expiration of New START, no binding limits exist between the US and Russia.
SIPRI Yearbook
- Society2025
Out-of-School Children
251million▲ +1.5% year-on-yearFirst sustained rise in twenty years, driven by regional conflicts and humanitarian cuts.
UNESCO
- Society2026
Youth Psychological Distress (<25)
+31% since 2019▲ +4 ptsThe primary social wellness indicator experiencing consistent decline in developed nations.
WHO / Gallup
- Technology2026
AI Capital & Research Investments
540$B/year▲ +38% year-on-yearUnprecedented computational acceleration yielding tangible breakthroughs in drug discovery.
Stanford AI Index
- Technology2026
Global Internet Connectivity
72%▲ +1.9 pts/year2.1 billion individuals remain offline, disproportionately in the Global South.
ITU Facts & Figures
Live Event Stream
Recent news headlines, historical baseline entries, and user submissions.
events · 0 recorded
Live Event Feed
Incoming news items from RSS feeds and user submissions. Stories are scored by keyword sentiment and decay over time as they age.
0 ▲ · 0 ▼ · 0 neutral
0 of 0 events
Methodology & Sources
How the index combines long-term indicators and decaying news sentiment.
methodology
How the index is calculated
- 01
Two layers, one score
60% of the index comes from structural indicators: CO2 levels, active conflicts, life expectancy, poverty rates, press freedom, and technology access. The other 40% comes from recent news events. This keeps the score from swinging on every headline while still reacting to real-world developments.
- 02
Events decay over time
Each event has a score from -1 to +1, an impact weight, and a date. Events fade using two decay rates: a 10-day half-life for short-term news momentum, and a 200-day half-life for historical baseline. An intense week of major events shifts the index, while background noise fades out.
- 03
Automated classification
Headlines and summaries are matched against a weighted dictionary of over 400 terms mapped to sentiment and category. Modifiers like 'record' or 'unprecedented' increase weight, while opinion pieces and sports are filtered out.
- 04
Continuous updates
The score updates whenever new feed items are fetched. Even without new headlines, values gradually adjust as older stories lose their weight.
formula
index = 0.60 * S + 0.40 * E
S = 100 * Σ(wᵢ * sᵢ) / Σwᵢ
E = 0.70 * 100 * tanh(2.1 * T₁₀) + 0.30 * 100 * tanh(4.4 * (T₁₀ - T₂₀₀))
Tₖ = Σ(pⱼ * wⱼ * 0.5^(Δt/k)) / Σ(wⱼ * 0.5^(Δt/k))
sᵢ = structural indicator score · pⱼ & wⱼ = event polarity and weight · Δt = days elapsed · T₁₀ = short-term news tone · T₂₀₀ = long-term baseline tone. Scores clamped between -100 and +100.
sources
Data sources
live feeds
- BBC WorldGlobal
- The Guardian - WorldGlobal
- France 24Global
- Al JazeeraGlobal
- WHO NewsHealth
- Nature NewsScience
- Phys.org - EarthClimate
- Phys.orgScience
- ESA Space NewsSpace
- EuronewsEurope
- Carbon BriefClimate
- CNBC EconomyEconomy
structural indicators
WMO, Copernicus, NOAA, IPCC, WWF Living Planet, Uppsala Conflict Data Program, SIPRI, V-Dem Institute, Reporters Without Borders, UN World Population Prospects, UN IGME, FAO, WHO, UNICEF, Stanford AI Index, ITU, World Bank, World Inequality Lab, IMF, UNESCO.
news bias note
News outlets naturally focus on what breaks rather than what works: conflicts get headlines, routine healthcare progress rarely does. Weighting structural metrics at 60% keeps the index grounded so daily news cycles don't overwhelm long-term realities.